I'm excited to announce that my new book 'On the Origin of Risk' is coming early in the 1st Quarter of 2025 with a likely release date of around 25th January.
There will be a book launch in a central location in London and it will also be available online. Watch this space for more details.
On the Origin of Risk, which will initially be available on Kindle ebook, will present a new way of understanding the deep biases we have in the business and scientific communities in our theories of risk and the core concepts we use to manage risk, especially as organisations.
I will present the evidence and argument from cutting-edge biology that risk is managed differently in organisms in Nature, and that we must learn from Nature in order to develop new theories and lead our mathematics of risk in new directions.
In the final half of the book I sketch out what these new directions look like. I present the beginning of a new way to look at problems of risk, including a technical appendix that adds new details on the new mathematics of risk which leverages our latest empirical knowledge of biological systems and original research by myself.
What this space for the links and the opportunity to purchase the book.
The table of contents is here: On the Origin of Risk: What organisations, AI researchers & even physicists need to learn from cutting-edge biology and why
Introduction
Part I. The human bias versus the biological model of risk
Chapter 1: The current bias in the way we model and manage risk
Chapter 2: The principles of controlled organisation growth
Chapter 3: The dimensions of natural risk management
Part II. Other ways of modelling risk in organisations
Chapter 4: Seeing both change & stasis
Chapter 5: Hedging and where & when to make decisions
Chapter 6: Comparing the new idea of risk to dynamics, feedback concepts and uncertainty
Chapter 7: Putting it into action
Part III. Cooperation and Organisation
Chapter 8: Cooperation and the human bias towards control of shape
Chapter 9: Cooperation & coordination in 21st Century microbiology
Chapter 10: Game theory, coordination and statistics
Chapter 11: The options and probabilities of coordination and cooperation in the organisation chart
Chapter 12: Classical game theory
Chapter 13 Organisation games
Part IV. The fundamental problems of new risk models
Chapter 14: Defining 'natural' versus 'artificial' problems in terms of shape change
Chapter 15: Direct evidence of meta-accuracy in Nature
Chapter 16: Flow in software design and flow as solving a natural problem
Chapter 17: Using computational entropy to understand options
Chapter 18: Language and niches
Conclusion
Technical Appendix
I: Signalling systems & adaptation
II: Efficiency, prediction and cryptographic change
III: A note on consciousness